NEW 2024 DATA PREDICTS MAGA WAVE IN THE GENERAL
Here’s a summary of the text: New 2024 data analyzed by Decision Desk HQ suggests a potential strong showing for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. According to recent polling, Trump currently leads Joe Biden in both national popular vote and Electoral College projections. Polling averages indicate Trump’s consistent advantage over Biden since September, with leads also seen in critical battleground states. Even when considering hypothetical scenarios and past incumbent trends, the analysis projects Trump winning decisively in the Electoral College, underscoring the challenge Biden faces in winning both the popular vote and necessary electoral votes.
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) this week shared its latest analysis of the 2024 presidential election based on recent polling.
In a Tuesday post on X, DDHQ wrote, “If the election were held today, Donald Trump would not only likely win the national popular vote, but also an Electoral College victory.”
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The post included a link to DDHQ’s detailed analysis from Elections Data Fellow Ryan Gest. Speaking about recent polling, Gest said, “Donald Trump has held an advantage over Joe Biden in our polling average since September of last year.”
He noted that Trump “also leads in each of the critical battleground states.”
Gest revealed that recent polling averages show Trump leading Biden “by 0.8 percent in a head-to-head race and by 1.8 percent when including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”
Gest offered a hypothetical scenario to show how Trump would win the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. Even with giving Biden a boost like past incumbent candidates have received, President Trump ended up winning 312 electoral votes, while Biden only received 226.
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Gest concluded, stating, “So, in this hypothetical scenario where we do grant Joe Biden a similar incumbency boost to the previous three presidents running for reelection, he would still lose to Trump by a convincing electoral margin. This further emphasizes the suggestion that Biden will likely need to win the popular vote by at least three points, if not four points, to have a shot at winning the Electoral College.”
Data collection RSBN website