Democrats Thought Bragg Trial Would Sink Trump’s 2024 Campaign, But Polling Suggests Otherwise

Summary: Recent polling indicates that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of former President Donald Trump has not significantly impacted his chances for the 2024 campaign. Despite facing 34 felony counts related to business records, voters remain supportive of Trump. Democrats had hoped the trial would hurt Trump’s standing, but polls suggest otherwise.

---

While Democrats may have hoped that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of former President Donald Trump would hurt his 2024 campaign, recent polling shows the proceedings have failed to seriously impact the president’s chances.

READ MORE: Trump’s Trial and the Legal Catastrophe

Background: Trump is currently in the fourth week of his New York trial, facing 34 felony counts related to allegedly falsifying business records during a payment to pornstar Stormy Daniels in 2016. Despite the legal battle, voters across the nation appear undeterred in their support for the former president.

Polling Insights:

• An Emerson College poll conducted on April 30 revealed that swing-state voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania believe a potential conviction won’t affect their backing of Trump in 2024.
• Independent voters, a crucial bloc in general elections, also indicated that a conviction would have “no impact” on their support for Trump.
• A CNN/SSRS poll from April 25 found that 76% of registered voters who back Trump would still vote for him regardless of a conviction in Bragg’s case.
• However, the same poll highlighted that most Americans lack confidence in the Manhattan jury’s ability to reach a fair verdict.
• An AP/NORC survey published on April 16 showed that only 35% of Americans believe Trump acted illegally in relation to the New York allegations. Additionally, just 31% are “extremely” or “very confident” that Trump is being treated fairly by the prosecution.

READ MORE: Biden Campaign Confirms He Will Debate Trump

Democratic Optimism and Republican Criticism:

• Some Democrats hope that the trial will negatively impact Trump’s standing among voters, benefiting President Biden.
• Republican National Committee spokesperson Rachel Lee criticized Democrats for relying on a “show trial” and emphasized other pressing issues like inflation and unrest on college campuses.
• An NPR/PBS/Marist poll conducted between April 22 and April 25 revealed that a majority of Americans are not closely following Trump’s New York trial.

In summary, while Democrats anticipated that the trial would harm Trump’s chances, polling data suggests that voters remain steadfast in their support, leaving the 2024 campaign landscape largely unchanged. The trial continues to be closely watched, but its impact on the electorate remains uncertain.