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DATA: TRUMP TAKES LARGEST LEAD YET

As the historic 2024 presidential election ramps up, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden have both experienced records in their polling recently—although these new records have not spelled good news for the incumbent Democrat.

In the NBC News survey, 47 percent of 1,000 registered voters indicated they would support President Trump in 2024, and 42 percent maintained their support of Joe Biden.

According to Interactive Polls, who posted these results to X on Sunday, Trump’s lead is his largest in any NBC News survey for a head-to-head matchup between the two major candidates.

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The poll found that Trump’s popular vote share expanded by two points from July, in contrast to Biden’s numbers, which fell by seven points.

However, these figures were nearly identically reversed in 2020. Of those surveyed, 43% claimed to have voted for Trump in the most recent election, compared to 47% who claimed to have voted for Biden.

This dramatic turnabout coincides with Joe Biden’s precipitous decline in approval ratings, which now mark him as the least popular president in almost 60 years.

Biden presently has the lowest approval during this point in his first term than of every president during this same period since former President Lyndon Johnson in 1968, according to The American Presidency Project by UCSB.

Johnson, who had previously chosen to run for a second full term, ultimately suspended his reelection bid in March 1968 following low approval ratings and his low primary turnout in New Hampshire.

Like Johnson, it is possible for Biden to still exit the presidential race amid his low favorability, which would likely cause a convention of sorts to select the official 2024 Democrat nominee.

Moreover, Johnson and Biden have the same approval rating from this point in their term. The American Presidency Project, which has tracked monthly approvals of presidents throughout their entire term, found Johnson’s approval at 41 percent in February 1968 and Biden’s favorability at the same amount during this same period.

No previous president had an approval rating quite as low as Biden’s in the early months of their last year in office, not even Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, or Donald Trump—all of whom lost their attempts for reelection.

On the other hand, Biden’s approval rating appeared to be even worse in subsequent early election surveys, according to data from The American Presidency Project.

Biden’s favorability rating is much worse, at 37%, per the NBC News survey. Just 16% of respondents said they “strongly approved” of the work he did while in office.

The survey found that 60% of respondents disapproved of Biden, who received the lowest levels of approval for his handling of the foreign policy, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas conflict (36 percent, 36%, and 29%, respectively).

As Biden has weakened, Trump’s popularity among Americans has continued to rise. Currently, the 45th president is closer to the last Democratic president’s seven-point lead against John McCain in 2008 than he was to Barack Obama’s almost four-point cushion against Mitt Romney in 2012.

Current Real Clear Politics average poll ratings show that Trump leads his opponent in every state he won in 2016—including Nevada, which he now has in his column.

In swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Trump leads in averages, while Biden leads by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania, a state where early polls tend to overestimate Democrats.

Trump is becoming increasingly more likely to not only win the popular vote but also to expand the electoral lead that he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016. If Biden’s numbers stay at current levels or fall, he could lose in a landslide.

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1 thought on “DATA: TRUMP TAKES LARGEST LEAD YET”

  1. The percentages of voters is increansing month after month. It s juts the beginning. In 2024/October, many voters gonna change their minds in favor of President Trump. We Stand with you Perdu de t Trump. God bless you, Melania and your family. Need you Crucially and urgently. Mafia is so bad. MAGA. SAVE AMERICA. PEACE . WLT47

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