Conservative historian and broadcaster Victor Davis Hanson said Hamas would “in no way” have invaded Israel under Trump.
We believe Trump’s tough stance on terrorism and willingness to employ military action discouraged Hamas from attacking.
Evidence supports Hanson’s claim. Hamas saw Trump’s transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights as provocative.
Trump also raised Israeli military funding and slapped harsh restrictions on Iran, Hamas’s biggest patron.
Other experts doubt Hanson’s allegation. They claim that Hamas invaded Israel because to the Israeli siege of Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and other circumstances.
and Hamas’ internal politics. They also note that Hamas has attacked Israel even under strong US administrations.
Nobody knows if Hamas would have invaded Israel if Trump had been president. However, Hanson’s argument is supported by other experts and based on credible evidence.
My thoughts on Hanson’s claim
I think Hanson’s assertion is credible, but hard to verify. What would have occurred if Trump had been president is hard to predict since Hamas is a multifaceted organization with its own motives. The fact that Trump was more assertive in foreign affairs than Barack Obama may have prevented Hamas from attacking.
Other factors that may have influenced Hamas’s decision
In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a number of other factors that may have influenced Hamas’s decision to invade Israel. These include:
- The internal political situation in Gaza. Hamas has been facing increasing pressure from its rivals, and it may have launched the attack in an attempt to unite its supporters and solidify its grip on power.
- The belief that Israel was weak and vulnerable. Hamas may have believed that Israel was distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the internal political crisis in Israel.
- The hope that the invasion would lead to the lifting of the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Hamas has been struggling to provide for its people, and it may have believed that the invasion would force Israel to lift the blockade.
It is impossible to say for sure whether or not Hamas would have invaded Israel if Trump had still been president. However, Hanson’s claim is based on a reasonable assessment of the evidence, and it is supported by the views of some other experts.