Trump Returns to Iowa: Will He Run in 2024?
Former President Donald Trump will visit Iowa for the eighth time this year on October 2, 2023. The visit occurs four months before the 2024 Republican presidential primary’s Iowa caucuses.
Trump has not officially launched his 2024 presidential bid, but his regular trips to Iowa and Republican support signal he is contemplating it.
Trump has rallied, talked with Republicans, and visited farmers and businesses in Iowa. He also attacked President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party on his tours.
Trump indicated in an interview that he will decide whether to run for president in “next few months.” His Iowa team’s organization made him “very happy” too.
Trump’s October 2 visit to Iowa will be examined for hints of a presidential announcement. If he doesn’t declare his candidacy during this visit, he probably will in the next weeks or months.
Will Trump win Iowa again?
Trump will be the Iowa caucuses favorite if he runs for president in 2024. He easily won the 2016 Iowa caucuses and remains popular among Republican voters.
A recent Iowa State University/Civiqs survey shows Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents. In the 2024 caucuses, 55% of Iowa Republicans would pick Trump, 18% Ron DeSantis, and 5% Mike Pence, according to the survey.
Trump’s Iowa support comes from white working-class people. Trump won over many of these supporters in 2016 by promising to restore manufacturing jobs and renegotiate trade treaties.
Trump also has evangelical Christian support in Iowa. These people helped Trump win Iowa in 2016, and they may again in 2024.
In Iowa, Trump faces obstacles
Trump struggles in Iowa despite his strength. His departure as president is a problem. In 2024, Trump will not enjoy the presidential election advantage of incumbents.
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Trump faces a more competitive Republican field in 2024 than in 2016. DeSantis, Pence, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo all mulling presidential bids and might challenge Trump for the Republican nomination.
Finally, Trump’s national approval rating is poor. The FiveThirtyEight survey placed Trump’s popularity rating at 39% and disapproval at 59%. Trump may struggle to win the 2024 general election, even if he gets the Republican nomination.
Trump’s October 2 visit to Iowa will be studied for signals of a 2024 presidential bid. If he doesn’t declare his candidacy during this visit, he probably will in the next weeks or months.
Trump will be the Iowa caucuses favorite if he runs for president in 2024. He confronts obstacles in Iowa, including the fact that he is no longer the incumbent president, a more crowded Republican field, and a low support rating among all Americans.
It is unclear whether Trump will run for president in 2024 or win the Republican nomination and general election. However, his October 2 visit to Iowa suggests he is mulling another White House bid.
Other issues that might effect Trump’s 2024 Iowa triumph include:
Democratic Iowa caucus turnout. Trump may struggle to win the caucuses if Democratic attendance is strong.
- Iowa Republican support for Trump. With declining Republican support, Trump may have challenges in winning the caucuses. Trump’s Republican opponents’ strength. Trump may struggle to win the caucuses if his opponents run robust campaigns.