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Trump Moves Ahead of Biden in New Hampshire by Four Points, New Poll Shows

Trump Gains Ground in Key Battleground State. In a significant shift in the political landscape, President Donald Trump has taken the lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, according to a recent poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP). The survey, conducted on June 28-29, reveals that Trump is now ahead with 44 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.

The Shift in Voter Support

This development marks a drastic change from a December New Hampshire poll where Biden led by 10 points. The recent first presidential debate appears to have played a role in this shift, underscoring the dynamic nature of voter sentiment as the election approaches.

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Voter Commitment

A breakdown of the poll results indicates a high level of voter commitment in the state. According to the NHIOP, 76% of registered voters are steadfast in their choice, while 24% expressed the possibility of reconsidering their vote. Neil Levesque, executive director of the NHIOP, highlighted that Biden faces challenges with a lower percentage of solid backing from Democratic voters compared to Trump’s support from Republicans.

“While 89% of Republicans solidly back Trump, Biden secures only 82% support from Democrats, with more Democratic voters drifting toward independent candidates,” Levesque noted.

Independent and Undecided Voters

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has also qualified for the ballot, is currently ranked at 4 percent in the poll. Another 6 percent of voters remain unsure, underscoring the potential for further shifts in the upcoming months.

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Congressional District Insights

The poll also indicates Trump’s lead extends to New Hampshire’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts. In the 1st District, traditionally a Republican stronghold, Trump has a clear advantage. Even in the 2nd District, where Democrats historically have an edge in voter registrations, Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead. This bodes well for the Republican Party’s chances of securing additional congressional seats, potentially altering the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

National Implications

New Hampshire’s shift is part of a broader trend observed in other key battleground states. A Cygnal poll released on the same day shows Trump leading Biden by nearly 4 percent in Pennsylvania, another critical state for the upcoming presidential election. According to Brock McCleary, a Cygnal and Trump 2020 pollster, Pennsylvania’s outcome could very well determine the next president, given its pivotal role in past elections.


As the 2024 presidential race heats up, the political tides in battleground states like New Hampshire hint at a highly competitive and uncertain election. With strong voter commitment yet significant segments still up for grabs, both campaigns face crucial months ahead to solidify their positions. The evolving dynamics underscore the importance of upcoming debates and campaign strategies as both candidates vie for the decisive support needed to win the presidency.

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